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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Was Holmes a Bayesian?
Not that Holmes. This one. In our previous blog post (11/14/14), we promised to explain why our defense of Bayesian methods is relevant to law. After all, how is probability theory generally or any of the foregoing specifically — i.e. Hájek’s analysis … Continue reading
A critique of Hájek’s critique of “radical subjectivism”
Alan Hájek delivers a devastating blow against frequentism and other theories of probability in his influential 2007 paper “The reference class problem is your problem too.” In brief, when a hypothesis H or proposition P can be classified in various … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
Tagged Alan Hajek, Reference Class Problem, Theory
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A recent example of the reference-class problem
As Zeynep Tufekci explains in this excellent essay, the now-infamous Catcalling Video was not based on a random sample of New York City neighborhoods. Here is the actual and non-random breakdown of time spent in each neighborhood: In other words, the methodology of the … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Logical Fallacies, Probability
Tagged Biased Samples, Catcalling Video, Reference Class Problem
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Is Banksy a woman?
We have always assumed that Banksy, our favorite mystery graffiti artist, is a man. But what if she is a woman? Kriston Capps makes a persuasive case in this beautiful essay for why Banksy is probably a woman. Hat tip to kottke … Continue reading
“Grow the brain before the beard”
The Tunisian protestor in this picture is holding a sign that reads “Grow the beard before the brain.” This is the best critique of ethical fundamentalism that we have seen in a long time. Hat tip to Strum-Me for the pointer.
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Philosophy
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Adjudication and the Turing Test
Legal trials resemble the Turing Test in many ways. First, let’s restate the original version of the Turing Test and then compare this test to the process of adjudication.
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Law, Philosophy, Probability
Tagged Adjudication, Turing Test
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The “Paradox of the Gatecrasher” is not a paradox
There is a sizable scholarly literature discussing the so-called “Paradox of the Gatecrasher,” a simple thought experiment introduced many years ago by British philosopher L. Jonathan Cohen, an evidence problem designed to test the proper role of statistics in law. (For a … Continue reading
All proof is probabilistic
That is the premise of our latest paper “Visualizing Probabilistic Proof.” (We’ve blogged about this paper before, but the latest draft of our paper is available on SSRN here and will be published in an upcoming volume of The Washington University Jurisprudence … Continue reading
Multiple Comparisons and the Law
Originally posted on Error Statistics Philosophy:
. The following is from Nathan Schachtman’s legal blog, with various comments and added emphases (by me). He will try to reply to comments/queries. “Courts Can and Must Acknowledge Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analyses”…
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Law, Philosophy
Tagged Deborah Mayo, Nathan Schachtman
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The paradox of automation
Our student Mike Hildebrandt recently brought this mesmerizing essay (with the mysterious title “The Human Factor”) to our attention. The author of the essay, William Langewiesche, describes the last moments of doomed Air France Flight 447 in riveting detail, and he also makes the … Continue reading
prior probability 