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Category Archives: Probability
Anatomy of a shot block
Posted in Games, Probability, Science, Sports
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Bayesian models as predictions
Our friend and colleague Jeremy E.C. Genovese recently brought this short theoretical paper to our attention. The paper, which was written by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Richard D. Morey, and Michael D. Lee, is titled “Bayesian benefits for the pragmatic researcher,” and we strongly … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
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How couples meet
Or, to be more precise, how couples who publish their wedding announcements in the New York Times meet. Data scientist Todd W. Schneider built a special-purpose website called Wedding Crunchers that analyzes wedding announcements published in the Sunday Times. His data … Continue reading
Posted in Culture, Games, Lotteries, Probability
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“Letter distribution” (secondary Scrabble markets in everything)
Posted in Culture, Games, Probability
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Should Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz drop out? (Republican Primary Prisoner’s Dilemma)
Our friend and colleague Steve Landsburg makes the following two observations on his blog: (i) “for either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio to become the Republican nominee, he must first consolidate the anti-Trump vote, which is to say that either … Continue reading
Posted in Cooperation, Politics, Probability
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The Turing Test and “Making a Murderer”
In our previous blog post, we applied the concept of “range voting” to jury trials. Today, we will discuss our 2012 paper “The Turing Test and the Legal Process” (published in volume 21 of the journal of Information & Communication Technology … Continue reading
Posted in Current Affairs, Law, Probability
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Randomness and the Iowa Caucus
For reasons that are obscure to us, the State of Iowa holds the first presidential primary in the nation every four years. (Shouldn’t the first presidential primary vote be allocated at random to a different State every four years?) This … Continue reading
Posted in Politics, Probability
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The facemash fiasco (Lessons 1 & 2)
Because our large business law class meets only once per week (on Mondays), we are going to combine Lessons 1 & 2 into a single lecture. In addition, we are going to re-enact Mark Zuckerberg’s fall 2003 “Ad Board” hearing … Continue reading
Posted in Ethics, Law, Probability, Voting
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Non-random coin toss?
How to not flip a coin What conditions must a coin toss satisfy in order for it to be truly “random,” and why isn’t this particular coin toss a “random” one … or is it? Perhaps another way of approaching … Continue reading
Posted in Current Affairs, Probability
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prior probability 