Category Archives: Probability

Bayesian models as predictions

Our friend and colleague Jeremy E.C. Genovese recently brought this short theoretical paper to our attention. The paper, which was written by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Richard D. Morey, and Michael D. Lee, is titled “Bayesian benefits for the pragmatic researcher,” and we strongly … Continue reading

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How couples meet

Or, to be more precise, how couples who publish their wedding announcements in the New York Times meet. Data scientist Todd W. Schneider built a special-purpose website called Wedding Crunchers that analyzes wedding announcements published in the Sunday Times. His data … Continue reading

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“Letter distribution” (secondary Scrabble markets in everything)

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Probabilistic business hours

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Should Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz drop out? (Republican Primary Prisoner’s Dilemma)

Our friend and colleague Steve Landsburg makes the following two observations on his blog: (i) “for either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio to become the Republican nominee, he must first consolidate the anti-Trump vote, which is to say that either … Continue reading

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The Turing Test and “Making a Murderer”

In our previous blog post, we applied the concept of “range voting” to jury trials. Today, we will discuss our 2012 paper “The Turing Test and the Legal Process” (published in volume 21 of the journal of Information & Communication Technology … Continue reading

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Randomness and the Iowa Caucus

For reasons that are obscure to us, the State of Iowa holds the first presidential primary in the nation every four years. (Shouldn’t the first presidential primary vote be allocated at random to a different State every four years?) This … Continue reading

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