Category Archives: Probability

“Choking and Excelling at the Free Throw Line”

That is the title of this excellent empirical study by Darrell Worthy, Arthur Markman, and Todd Maddox. In case you’re wondering, their data set was comprehensive: it consisted of all free throws attempted during the last minute of all regular-season … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability, Sports | Leave a comment

Contagion theory of violence

Check out this provocative open-access paper titled Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings (Towers, et al., 2015). Here is an extended excerpt (footnotes omitted): “We fit a mathematical contagion model to the data sets, with model terms that take … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Mathematics, Probability | 2 Comments

2016 presidential election forecast

Happy Canada Day! Check out this election forecast from our friends at FiveThirtyEight. Is Nate Silver underestimating Trump’s chances again? Or does Clinton really have this locked up?

Posted in Current Affairs, Politics, Probability | 2 Comments

Price effects, virtue effects, and the law

Richard Craswell, a law professor at Stanford, once posed the following question in his paper titled “Promises and Prices”: why do economists and philosophers who study law differ so greatly in the relevance they assign to price effects. Here is … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Law, Probability | 2 Comments

Brexit odds

As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability | 3 Comments

A beautiful free kick (in Spanish)

Posted in Games, Probability, Sports | Leave a comment

Anatomy of a shot block

Posted in Games, Probability, Science, Sports | Leave a comment