Creative Commons
Blogs I Follow
Category Archives: Probability
Powerball is a scam
Critical thinking question: If lotteries weren’t a State-run monopoly, would such scams have been shut down long ago under State and federal consumer protection laws? (Mathematical table above via Business Insider.)
Posted in Lotteries, Probability
Leave a comment
Type I vs. Type II errors
We’re almost done reading Deborah G. Mayo’s magnum statistical opus Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge (University of Chicago Press, 1996), a must-read for anyone interested in the philosophy of statistics. Her defense of conventional statistics or “Neyman-Pearson” methods … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
3 Comments
Mayo (1996): A Comment
Since summer, we’ve been carefully and slowly reading (off and on) Dr Deborah Mayo’s excellent tome “Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge.” It’s a tough read–we’re only up to page 192 of her book, less than half-way through, though … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
3 Comments
Risk assessment
If you’re afraid of terrorism, mass shootings, or sharks, then don’t get behind the wheel. Via Wikipedia: “On average in 2012, 92 people were killed on the roadways of the U.S. each day, in 30,800 fatal crashes during the year.” … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
Leave a comment
The Mathematics of Bookmaking
In the gambling world, vigorish refers to the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for taking a bet from a gambler. We found the following formal definition of vigorish on the walls of a tavern in the Old Town … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Probability
Leave a comment
Litigation is a crapshoot (“Hot Bench” edition)
Meet the “hot” judges of the new syndicated TV show “Hot Bench” (Wikipedia article here). Unlike every other judge show in this well-worn daytime TV genre, “Hot Bench” features a panel of three judges and goes behind the scenes to show … Continue reading
Jury Duty
Juries play an essential role in Anglo-American legal systems, and now that many countries like the U.S. have abolished compulsory military service, jury duty provides a rare civic opportunity to work with your fellow citizens for the greater good. For our part, … Continue reading
A visualization of Texas hold’em win probabilities
Software engineer Chris Beaumont visualized the strength of opponent hands in Texas hold ’em, given any other hand. His analysis is based on counting about 1.3 trillion possible combinations. (Via FlowingData.)
prior probability 