prior probability

A Penrose triangle is an “impossible object” or optical illusion. Although this type of triangle can be depicted in a drawing, it cannot exist as an actual solid object. (Hat tip: @pickover.)

My fellow constitutional law scholars have offered a wide variety of comments about the impeachment of President Donald J. Trump, but none have asked or attempted to answer the following fundamental question: what level of proof must the managers of the House of Representative meet during Trump’s trial in the Senate? In brief, a simple majority of the U.S. House of Representatives has charged President Donald J. Trump with two high political crimes: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that these forms of political misconduct are impeachable offenses. (Are they?) If so, what burden of proof must the House managers meet during the Senate show trial in order to prove that President Trump committed either of these political crimes? Should it be “proof beyond a reasonable doubt” (i.e. the highest burden of proof in our common law system of justice), or should it be “preponderance of the evidence” (or “more likely than not,” a much less demanding evidentiary standard), or should it be an intermediate standard like “clear and convincing evidence”? Also, who decides what the burden of proof for impeachment trials should be? The Senate or the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?

What lessons does the ill-fated 1970 guaranteed income bill teach us today? What timely takeaways, if any, can we obtain from this legislative debacle? After all, this political theater took place several generations ago; the leading players are all dead. Below are excerpts from the epilogue of my latest work-in-progress “Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold”: Continue reading →

I have been posting excerpts from my latest draft “Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold.” Here is an excerpt from Act III, the concluding act of my political morality tale, which also introduces the villain of my story–another Southern Democrat, Senator Russell B. Long (pictured below below the fold): Continue reading →

In previous posts, I shared excerpts from the Prologue and from Act I of my political morality tale “Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold.” Here is an excerpt from Act II (footnotes below the fold), which describes how an old school Arkansas Democrat (Wilbur D. Mills, pictured below the fold) made common cause with conservatives like Milton Friedman to shepherd Richard Nixon’s controversial guaranteed income bill through the House of Representatives during the 91st Congress:

Continue reading →

Yesterday, we posted a link to our most recent work-in-progress entitled “Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold,” which revisits the rise and fall of The Family Assistance Act of 1970. Had this historic bill been enacted into law, it would have provided every poor family with children a guaranteed minimum income. My history of this guaranteed income bill is structured as a three-act play. Here is an excerpt from Act I of my legislative morality tale: Continue reading →

Along with Earth, Wind, & Fire’s classic song “September,” Rick Astley’s “Never Gonna Give You Up” (released in 1987) was one of my favorite songs when I was growing up. Now, check out this “Oral History of Rickrolling” by Brian van Hooker (via Digital Culture), which documents the recent revival of Astley’s classic single. Here is an excerpt:

Paul “Pawl” Fisher, video editor: “When I did that video (see below), I was in college and I was working for the athletic department of Eastern Washington University. That was when Rickrolling was just hitting the Internet …. I controlled all the cameras during the games back then, and I was basically bored at work, so I saw the potential to pull this off. My boss at the time, Davin, he looked like Rick Astley, so we went and got ourselves a trenchcoat and took it from there.”

Davin Perry, Rick Astley impersonator in the EWU video: “It was all Paul’s idea, but I was a pretty good fit to play Rick Astley. At the time, I’d just graduated and was working for the athletic department as my first full-time job, which I eventually thought I might lose because of this whole thing, but Paul asked me to play Astley in the video and I did ….”