prior probability

Standing Rock Map

Posted on December 2, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Does the standoff over the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline falsify the Coase Theorem? In any case, we think Ronald Coase’s analysis of property rights on page 25 of his contrarian but essentially correct 1959 FCC paper might be relevant to the conflict over the placement of this pipeline: “Whether a newly discovered cave belongs to the man who discovered it, the man on whose land the entrance to the cave is located, or the man who owns the surface under which the cave is situated is no doubt dependent on the law of property. But the law merely determines the person with whom it is necessary to make a contract to obtain the use of the cave.”

Image credit: northlandia.wordpress.com

Posted in Current Affairs, Economics, Law | 2 Comments

Negative tipping?

Posted on December 1, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What’s up, doc? As you may be aware of, a growing number of establishments are beginning to flat out ban the practice of tipping. But what if, instead of abolishing tipping, patrons had the option ex ante of giving a “negative tip.” In other words, why is the practice of tipping an asymmetrical one? By way of example, let’s say the standard tip (or “service charge”) for good service at Restaurant A is 20%. Then, in the alternative, why can’t customers deduct up to 20% of their bill for bad service? (It turns out, by the way, that we are not the first to propose this. See this and this.)

Credit: retailhellunderground.com

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Game Theory | 2 Comments

The Mathematics of the Twelve Days of Christmas

Posted on November 30, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this fun blog post by math wizard Ben Orlin, who calculates the total number of gifts in “The 12 Days of Christmas.” In the words of Mr Orlin, “The song invited a lot of questions, but one in particular leapt out to the mathematical mind …: How many gifts, in all, did my true love give to me?” (Tip of our hat to fellow math lover Cliff Pickover.)

See also the fraternity "Sigma Sigma Index-of-Summation."

Credit: Ben Orlin

Posted in Culture, Mathematics | 1 Comment

In defense of the bad man theory of law

Posted on November 29, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What is “law”? In a forthcoming essay, Brian Leiter provides an excellent summary of H.L.A. Hart’s influential legal positivist theory of law. (The cover of his classic tome, “The Concept of Law”, is pictured below.) In particular, Professor Leiter, who teaches legal philosophy at the University of Chicago, claims that Hart’s account of legal positivism has three advantages over competing theories: (1) Hart’s theory provides a common sense or plausible account of the ordinary man’s understanding of law, (2) it can be tested empirically, and (3) it is parsimonious. Let’s examine each of these claims in turn: Continue reading →

Posted in Law, Philosophy | Leave a comment

Fidel’s legal legacy (el juicio de los aviadores)

Posted on November 28, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Among many other things, the Miami Herald’s extensive obituary of Fidel Castro describes the March 1959 trial of 44 Cuban pilots, bombardiers, and mechanics from Cuba’s pre-revolutionary air force (referred to as “el juicio de los aviadores” in Cuban legal history). In summary, after a revolutionary tribunal acquitted the accused airmen of crimes against the Revolution, an enraged Fidel instantly created a right of appeal for prosecutors. When he was told that Cuban law did not permit prosecutors to appeal acquittals, Fidel replied: “Revolutionary justice is not based on legal precepts but on moral conviction.” A second tribunal then condemned the airmen to prison for 30 years. In the words of the Herald: “the airmen were lucky. Though Cuban law did not allow capital punishment, the revolutionary tribunals were sending a steady stream of men to the firing squad, often after trials televised from sports stadiums where handpicked mobs of Castro supporters howled in unison, paredón! — to the wall!”

Free #ElSexto

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

South American population density map

Posted on November 28, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Hat tip: killerjag, via Reddit.

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Maps | Leave a comment

Cuba Libre

Posted on November 26, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Fidel was already 42 years old when I was born a world away in Los Angeles, California, but because my family is Cuban, this charismatic despot–like a distant gravitational force–has overshadowed my life and shaped my world view for as long as I can remember. Here, though, is an extended excerpt from my autobiographical essay, describing my first visit to Cuba: Continue reading →