prior probability

“La trampa de Gödel” (Venezuela edition)

Posted on December 9, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Not long ago we published a formal paper titled Gödel’s Loophole in which we identify and distinguish between Gödelian and non-Gödelian design defects in the U.S. Constitution, loopholes that could potentially lead to the creation of a constitutional dictatorship within the existing rules of the Constitution. Today, with the rise of dangerous demagogues like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, our paper has become more relevant than ever. But presidential elections in the U.S. are still a year away … In the meantime, Venezuela may soon serve as a field study or live laboratory for scholars of constitutional defects, for how a president might find a way of “lawfully” assuming dictatorial powers (i.e. within the existing set of constitutional rules under Venezuela’s current Bolivarian Constitution) even in the face of popular opposition. In brief, the opposition party in Venezuela recently won a major legislative victory on 6 Dec. 2015, winning 107 out of 167 seats in Venezuela’s legislature, the National Assembly. There is some speculation, however, that President Nicolás Maduro might request the outgoing National Assembly, which is still dominated by his political party and which does not leave office until January 2016, to pass an enabling law (Ley Habilitante) that would allow the president to rule by decree for the rest of his term (2019). We will be following this brewing constitutional conflict closely and will keep you posted …

Buyer beware …

Posted in Law, Logical Fallacies, Politics | 1 Comment

Boricua Beer

Posted on December 8, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

We are grading our fall term final projects for Law & Ethics. In brief, we asked our students to choose a company they would want to be the CEO of and to explore various legal and ethical issues facing their company, e.g. Intellectual Property, Contracts, Litigation Risks, etc. One of these companies, Boricua Beer, really caught our attention. Before coming to UCF, we lived in Puerto Rico (Borinquen) from 1993 until 2009, so we can’t wait to try this beer.

Posted in Culture | Leave a comment

“Don’t keep a schedule”

Posted on December 7, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Marc Andresseen shares his quirky ideas for becoming a hyper-productive machine here. (We stumbled upon these guidelines via Tyler Cowen, the most hyper-productive blogger, reader, scholar bar none.) Some of Andresseen’s ideas make sense and are easy to implement–like “do email twice a day”–others, however, are paradoxical and counter-intuitive, like this one:

… don’t keep a schedule …

I’m totally serious. If you pull it off — and in many structured jobs, you simply can’t — this simple tip alone can make a huge difference in productivity.

By not keeping a schedule, I mean: refuse to commit to meetings, appointments, or activities at any set time in any future day.

As a result, you can always work on whatever is most important or most interesting, at any time.

But don’t you have to keep a schedule (of sorts) in order to not keep a schedule?

Posted in Paradoxes | Leave a comment

Questions regarding the 13th Amendment

Posted on December 6, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Happy Anniversary! On this day 150 years ago, the Thirteenth Amendment was ratified by the requisite number of U.S. States, including most (but not all) of the southern States that had left the Union and joined the rebel and pro-slavery Confederacy. But considering that these former rebel States were at war with the United States, should the votes of these States have counted toward ratification? Also, how should this Amendment be interpreted in light of the state action doctrine? Specifically, which branch of government has the authority to enforce the provisions of the Thirteenth Amendment?

Posted in History, Law, Paradoxes | Leave a comment

Houseplane?

Posted on December 5, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this video (via digg), featuring Bruce Campbell, who lives in a Boeing 727.

Posted in Culture | Leave a comment

Credible Commitment?

Posted on December 4, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What a great time to be alive, especially if you are consultant, what with so many philanthropic foundations to choose from … Our friend Mark Zuckerberg recently pledged–via a lengthy public letter ostensibly addressed to his newborn daughter–to donate 99% of his Facebook shares to his own private philanthropic venture: the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative. So, is this public pledge legally-binding or otherwise enforceable in a court of law, or is it just some savvy marketing and public relations ploy on his part? Addendum (15 Dec.): here is James Surowiecki’s defense of Zuckerberg’s “philanthro-capitalism”–or should we say: pseudo-philanthropy?

Posted in Law, Questions Rarely Asked | Leave a comment

Camera-book

Posted on December 4, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

h/t kottke

Posted in Art, Culture | 2 Comments

Dept. of Good Riddance?

Posted on December 3, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What’s up? The world’s most overpaid and overrated athlete recently wrote a lame poem to announce his retirement from the game of basketball. (No, we aren’t talking about Amar’e Stoudemire.) In any case, this odd ode makes no reference to the Eagle County rape case or the Kobe-Shaq fued, so our reaction to the Mamba’s retirement is a big yawn. Hey, Kobe, wake us up when your team’s terrible season is over.

Posted in Sports | 2 Comments

Best Final Project (Fall 2015)

Posted on December 2, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Congratulations to our amazing student Andrea Londono. Her excellent video (see link above) explaining the law and ethics of BeatBox Beverages, a startup company located in Austin, Texas, received the most votes for “best presentation” from the students in our undergraduate Law and Ethics class. In addition, props to Carolyn and Charissa, who presented on Chick fil-A, and to John Ly, who discussed his startup “Nerdy Bobo.” (If you are interested, you can find the general guidelines for this semester’s final project here.) Future students: please take note!

Posted in Law | Leave a comment

Risk assessment

Posted on December 1, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

If you’re afraid of terrorism, mass shootings, or sharks, then don’t get behind the wheel. Via Wikipedia: “On average in 2012, 92 people were killed on the roadways of the U.S. each day, in 30,800 fatal crashes during the year.” (Source: NHTSA.)