Taxing robots (Pigovian beard tax edition)

Microsoft billionaire and quasi-monopolist Bill Gates recently proposed that we should tax robots. But should we really tax robots? Why not impose a tax on every line of computer code instead? Or why not tax computer programmers who sport beards? Via Wikipedia: “In 1698, Peter I of Russia instituted a beard tax to bring Russian society in line with Western European models. [1] To enforce the ban on beards, the tsar empowered police to forcibly and publicly shave those who refused to pay the tax. [2] Resistance to going clean shaven was widespread, with many believing that it was a religious requirement for a man to wear a beard. [3] The tax levied depended upon the status of the bearded man: Those associated with the Imperial Court, military, or government were charged 60 rubles annually; wealthy merchants were charged 100 rubles per year while other merchants, and townsfolk were charged 60 rubles per year; Muscovites were charged 30 rubles per year; and peasants were charged two half-kopeks every time they entered a city. [4]” Notice the “progressive” nature of this old Russian beard tax. (The footnotes are below the fold.)

Image result for r2 d2

Save me from Bill Gates…

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Posted in Current Affairs, Economics, Politics, Web/Tech | Leave a comment

Role reversal experiment: what if The Donald were a Donalda?

He would have still won the election! Maria Guadalupe and Joe Salvatore, professors at NYU, conducted an ingenious experiment (see video below) and found some surprising results. Happy International Women’s Day and be sure to check out the video below (hat tip: Alex Tabarrok) for a demonstration of Professors Guadalupe and Salvatore role-reversal experiment:

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, History, Politics | Leave a comment

The longest highway in the world

You can read more about the Pan American Highway here.

The Pan American Highway: The Longest Road In The World

Source: brilliantmaps.com

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Ancient probability

Although modern probability theory dates to the 1600s, our ancestors have been playing games of chance for a very long time. Via the amazing Cliff Pickover, for example, check out this ancient die (circa 2500 B.C.) from the Indus Valley Civilization. (Photo Credit: Lahore Museum in Lahore, Pakistan.)

The Lucky Five?

Posted in Culture, Games, History, Probability | 1 Comment

Class No. 8 (the ghost of Napster)

Have you ever downloaded copyrighted content from the Internet or shared your Netflix password with a friend? We sure have! In our next class, we will debate the law and ethics of copyright infringement and discuss how the law attempts to balance “fair use” (or sharing) with property rights in the domain of copyrights. In particular, we will focus on two cases: The Sony Betamax Case (decided in the mid-1980s) as well as Metallica v. Napster (decided in the early 2000s). In summary, before Sean Parker discovered Facebook, he had co-founded a company called Napster in 1999, a peer-to-peer file-sharing website that allowed users to share MP3 music files with each other. Napster became an instant success; according to Wikipedia, “verified Napster use peaked with 26.4 million users worldwide in February 2001.” The rock group Metallica, however, wasted no time in filing a federal lawsuit for copyright infringement against Napster, and the courts eventually issued an injunction shutting down the website … But did the court make the correct decision, and on what legal grounds did the court issue this draconian remedy, i.e. the injunction shutting down Napster?

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Artist in Chief

Have you seen fugitive war criminal George W. Bush’s collection of oil paintings of veterans? (See fragment below.) These remarkable portraits are assembled in his new book Portraits of Courage: A Commander in Chief’s Tribute to America’s Warriors. This series of portraits got me thinking … Just as the Library of Congress appoints a United States Poet Laureate, who serves as the nation’s official poet for a designated term, why don’t we also create a space for an Artist Laureate, a Movie Director Laureate, or even a Blogger Laureate as well?

Image result for portraits of courage

Posted in Art, Bayesian Reasoning, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Product placement 101

Matt Thomas just brought this beautiful TV ad to our attention via his blog. The ad in question is composed of a series of movie scenes featuring the iconic Rolex watch. (In several of these classic scenes, the actors actually refer to the brand by name!) Some marketing scholars, however, claim that product placement is an unethical business practice and should be regulated by law. (See here, for example.) We totally disagree with this claim. Whether product placement is ethical or not (i.e. a form of deception), regulating this practice would probably do more harm than good. After all, how could a director shoot a motion picture without placing any products in his film?

Posted in Deception, Ethics, Law | Leave a comment

Close to zero

As we approach the end of the winter season, what are the chances of finding two identical snowflakes? According to physicist Jon Nelson (via Popular Mechanics), the chances are “essentially zero.” Or, to be more mathematically precise, the chances are one divided by 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000. (The enormous denominator in this fraction is the number of possible snowflake shapes there are: one followed by 768 zeros.) By the way, the image below, via Rian Dundon, is a reproduction of one of the first photographs of a snowflake:

Credit: Wilson Bentley

Posted in Culture, Mathematics, Probability, Science | 4 Comments

The End of Risk-Taking?

Our friend and colleague Tyler Cowen has just published a new book with a catchy title: The Complacent Class. At the risk of over generalization (pun intended), Professor Cowen’s book claims that North Americans are becoming intellectually lazy and spiritually complacent–more willing to settle for small or marginal improvements in existing methods and things and less willing to test risky and revolutionary large-scale ideas and projects. (Really? Sorry Elon Musk!) Professor Cowen is also producing a series of short and engaging lectures on video explaining the main ideas from his book. Although we disagree with Professor Cowen’s gloom and doom thesis, his videos are worth watching. (Self-recommending, as he likes to say!) Here is the first installment:

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, History | 2 Comments

Type I or Type II error?

Was this situation a false positive or a false negative?

Image result for oscar mixup

Getty Images

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Questions Rarely Asked | 2 Comments