prior probability

Although we’re a day late, 29 June 2017 marks the 10th anniversary of the launching of the original Apple iPhone.* To honor this occasion, here are some useful links:

1. Tyler Cowen’s essay in praise of the iPhone: Put down the iPhone and appreciate its genius.

2. Adam Greenfield’s critique: A sociology of the smartphone.

3. Steve Jobs’s original iPhone presentation from January 2007.

* Full disclosure: I drafted this blog post on my Apple iPhone 5s. That I was able to access the Internet, link to various sources, and track down and post a picture — in a matter of minutes and on such a small and portable device — is remarkable.

Via digg. It would intriguing to see if there is any correlation between commute times and accident rates.

“How Republicans are born… Daughter, 8, has been savings [sic] up to buy her first Guitar. Found it for $35. She had 35 exact. Then…sales tax.”

This tweet (quoted above) by Grover Norquist, the founder and president of Americans for Tax Reform, has generated a lot of discussion on the Internet today. On the one hand, taxes are a necessary evil to pay for public goods such as national defense and public roads. On the other hand, maybe we don’t need so many roads and military weapons. But what most commentators are missing is that Mr Norquist is just plain wrong about Republicans being “anti-taxes.” In truth, when they have been in power, Republicans in Congress have done nothing to curb federal spending (except talk). (An intellectually-honest libertarian would argue that taxes are a form of theft, backed up by coercion.)

“The first thing you learn in advertising is that nobody wants to read your shit.” According to Steven Pressfield’s latest book Nobody wants to read your sh*t, that fundamental lesson applies to all forms of writing, not just ads. Pressman’s excellent book, however, is full of simple rules designed to help writers tell stories that people will want to read. His book is full of practical pointers for writing ad copy, movie scripts, and works of fiction as well as non-fiction. Here’s one helpful excerpt (p. 81): Continue reading →

Why are concessions like popcorn and candy bars so expensive at movie theaters? Is it due to price discrimination (the standard economic answer), to discrete-discontinuous demand (see this paper by Ricard Gil and Wesley Hartmann), to differentials in ticket prices (see chapter 4 of Richard McKenzie’s book on pricing puzzles), or to high clean up costs (the answer the economist Eric Helland once gave me)? Also, if economists cannot agree on the solution to this simple puzzle, what does this say about economics as a discipline? Bonus Question: Why is the popcorn sold at movie theaters so bad? Read more about this puzzle here (via Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution) and here (via Natasha Geiling at The Smithsonian).