A recent example of the reference-class problem

As Zeynep Tufekci explains in this excellent essay, the now-infamous Catcalling Video was not based on a random sample of New York City neighborhoods. Here is the actual and non-random breakdown of time spent in each neighborhood:

In other words, the methodology of the filmmakers of the Catcalling Video is flawed. Over half of the shots in the video are actually taken from just one street: 125th Street in Harlem. The full table of NYC neighborhoods and streets in the video is available under the fold. Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Logical Fallacies, Probability | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Wikipedia Paradox

According to Wikipedia (citations omitted):

“Ignore All Rules” is a “favorite” rule of the English-language open content encyclopedia, Wikipedia. Its formulation is generally (emphasis in original), “If a rule prevents you from improving or maintaining Wikipedia, ignore it.” Wikipedia has a tradition of treating rules skeptically, except for this rule …

Do you see the paradox here? After all, isn’t the Wikipedia rule — “Ignore All Rules” — itself a rule?!

Can you solve the Wikipedia Paradox ?
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Is Banksy a woman?

We have always assumed that Banksy, our favorite mystery graffiti artist, is a man. But what if she is a woman? Kriston Capps makes a persuasive case in this beautiful essay for why Banksy is probably a woman. Hat tip to kottke for the pointer.

Posted in Art, Bayesian Reasoning, Culture | Tagged | 1 Comment

WWII films by country

Why are war movies so popular in the United States? What do these data say about North American culture? Don’t we need to know the total number of post-WWII films produced by each country on this particular list to answer these previous questions? In any case, thanks to Bob9999999999999 (that’s Bob followed by 13 nines, not 9 nines) for preparing this pie chart.

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Ideological Turing Tests

Now that the midterm elections in the U.S. — as well as the presidential contest in Brasil — are finally over, can you pass an Ideological Turing Test? For example, let’s say you support gay marriage or oppose legalizing the sale of marijuana. Could you make a persuasive argument against gay marriage or in support of drug legalization? An Ideological Turing Test, in other words, is designed to test whether a political partisan or candidate for office correctly understands the arguments of his or her political adversaries. According to Wikipedia:

The partisan is invited to answer questions or write an essay posing as his opposite number; if neutral judges cannot tell the difference between the partisan’s answers and the answers of [his political adversary], the candidate is judged to correctly understand the opposing side. The Ideological Turing Test is so named because of its similarity with the Turing test, a test whereby a machine is required to fool a neutral judge into thinking that it is human.

We love this concept, but where would we find the requisite “neutral judges” to evaluate the test-taker’s answers?

Now argue the opposing side!

Posted in Philosophy, Politics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Shaming or nudging?

Iowa GOP nudge

Hat tip to Michelle N. Meyer at The Faculty Lounge. More here.

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Sputnik 2

Thanks to Radiosucks, who recently reminded us of the role of Laika the dog on 3 November 1957, the day Sputnik 2, the second spacecraft ever to enter Earth orbit, was launched: “On board was Laika, a stray dog from the streets of Moscow. Laika’s mission was to demonstrate that mammals could handle the physical stress of a rocket launch.”

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The history of chess openings

Are you ready for the 2014 World Chess Championship between Magnus Carlsen and Viswanathan Anand? In preparation for the upcoming WCC, we are linking to this beautiful diagram describing the evolution of chess openings over time. It was prepared by Randal S. Olson. See also Raymond Keene’s classic book below.

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“Grow the brain before the beard”

The Tunisian protestor in this picture is holding a sign that reads “Grow the beard before the brain.” This is the best critique of ethical fundamentalism that we have seen in a long time. Hat tip to Strum-Me for the pointer.

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Philosophy | Leave a comment

Law of necessity (volcanic lava edition)

The magnificent Tyler Cowen — over at Marginal Revolution — poses the following question: Is it legal to build a diversion barrier against Hawaiian lava flow? The ancient doctrine Necessitas non habet legem provides the most likely answer.

County of Hawaii media image of lava flow reaching earth barrier in Pahoa village on Oct 29, 2014.

County of Hawaii media image of lava flow reaching earth barrier in Pahoa village on 29 Oct. 2014.
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