Brexit odds

As of 16:50 Eastern Standard Time.

As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make £70 total: his initial stake of £10, plus a huge profit of £60. (Notice the amounts here are stated in pounds since this is a British betting site, where gambling on political and sporting events is totally legal.) By contrast, if the bettor wagers £10 that a majority of the voters will vote to remain in the E.U. (“remain”), with odds of 1/7, the bettor will only receive £11.43: his initial stake of £10, plus a relatively miniscule profit £1.43. Notice what this particular betting market is telling us: “remain” is a safer bet than “leave.”

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability | 3 Comments

Blade Runner forever

We are big fans of the movie Blade Runner. We even co-authored a scholarly paper titled “Clones and the Coase Theorem” in which we explore the problem of time-scarcity (the limited lifespans of the replicants in Blade Runner) in light of the Tyrell Corporation’s monopoly over the production of replicants. Now, Dave Addey has written up this extensive analysis of the typography and design of Blade Runner (hat tip: kottke). Among other things, he created this beautiful video reconstruction of one of the most enigmatic scenes from the movie:

Posted in Art, Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Questions Rarely Asked, Science Fiction | Leave a comment

A beautiful free kick (in Spanish)

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Anatomy of a shot block

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Wittgenstein’s door handle

Via Dan Wang’s twitter feed, we unexpectedly stumbled upon this insightful but speculative essay by Christopher Benfey in the N.Y. Review of Books. In summary, Benfey describes the beautiful door handles (pictured below) the philosopher Ludwig Wiggenstein designed for a modernist house built in Vienna during the mid-1920s. (As an aside, we have always wanted to visit this house.) Prior to his participation in this project, Wittgentstein had left the world of academic philosophy for good, famously claiming to have solved all major philosophical problems in his enigmatic Tractatus, originally published in 1921. So, why did Wittgenstein decide to return to his philosophical pursuits at the end of the 1920s? According to Benfey, Wittgenstein’s experience with construction tools and his work on door handles may have prompted his return to philosophy. Here is an excerpt from Benfey’s essay, edited by us for clarity:

I prefer to believe that the prompt [to Wittgenstein’s return to philosophy] was in the handle. For when Wittgenstein returned to philosophy, the idea that drove him beyond all others was that the nature of language had been misunderstood by philosophers, “including,” he noted winningly, “the author of the Tractatus.” Words did not, he had come to believe, primarily provide a picture of life (the word “snake” representing, or sounding like, an actual snake); they were better conceived of as a part of the activity of life. As such, they were more like tools. (We do things with words, as J. L. Austin famously argued, things like, from a list of Wittgenstein’s, “thanking, cursing, greeting, praying.”) “Think of the tools in a tool-box,” Wittgenstein wrote in his epochal Philosophical Investigations (1953). “There is a hammer, pliers, a saw, a screw-driver, a rule, a glue-pot, glue, nails and screws.—The functions of words are as diverse as the functions of these objects.” Words may look similar, especially when we see them in print. “Especially when we are doing philosophy!” The analogy Wittgenstein drew was precisely with handles [here, Benfey quotes Aphorism #12 from Wittgenstein’s Philosophical Investigations]:

It is like looking into the cabin of a locomotive. We see handles all looking more or less alike. (Naturally, since they are all supposed to be handled.) But one is the handle of a crank which can be moved continuously (it regulates the opening of a valve); another is the handle of a switch, which has only two effective positions, it is either off or on; a third is the handle of a brake-lever, the harder one pulls on it, the harder it brakes; a fourth, the handle of a pump: it has an effect only so long as it is moved to and fro.

Image Credit: Studio Herbert Urban

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, History, Philosophy | 2 Comments

Three lessons from our father

Family first. Work hard. Be loyal.

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Gracias papa

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Visualization of world’s most spoken languages

Proportional Pie Chart of the World’s Most Spoken Languages [2000x3261]

hat tip: unord, via reddit

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Language | 3 Comments

Homicide data by weapon

Let’s ban knives, too?  There’s no need for a complicated regression analysis, via Alex Tabarrok (Marginal Revolution), here are the raw data for 2014:

Screenshot 2016-06-17 20.47.06

Source: FBI

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The evolution of storytelling

Image Credit: David Morrison

Posted in Culture, Time | 2 Comments

Is stare decisis a tautology?

Stare decisis, or the principle of binding precedent, means that a decision made by a court is binding on that court itself in future cases and on all inferior courts in the same legal jurisdiction. The rationale for this principle is the idea that judges should treat like cases alike. Moreover, stare decisis not only serves as the foundation of the Anglo-American “common law” system; it is also said that stare decisis promotes the rule of law, since this principle is designed to limit the discretion of judges and thus keep the legal system predictable and stable over time.

But as a matter of logic, the principle of binding precedent neither enhances the rule of law nor limits the discretion of judges because, at the end of the day, it is the judges themselves who decide when two cases are sufficiently alike or unalike. Moreover, stare decisis is based on a tautology: one practical, the other logical. Let’s consider the practical problems with the principle of stare decisis first. It is all well and good to say that judges should treat like cases alike, but who decides when two different cases, let’s call them case A and case B, are sufficiently alike or unalike?  Why, it is the judges themselves who decide this! Thus, from a purely practical perspective, the impotence of the principle of precedent should become apparent to us at once. On the one hand, the main purpose of stare decisis is to limit the discretion of judges, but at the same time, it is these same judges—i.e. the very same officials whose discretion we wish to limit—who decide which precedents are binding!

To make matters worse, the notion of “binding precedent” is itself something of an oxymoron, a logical contradiction. Even when everyone agrees that case A and case B are sufficiently alike for purposes of stare decisis—so that case A controls the outcome of case B—this happy state of affairs now raises a new and more troubling question: on what authority is stare decisis itself based on? Why is this new question so troubling? Because the obvious answer to this question undermines the very moral foundation of our legal system: it is the common-law judges themselves who have established the doctrine of stare decisis on normative grounds—the moral maxim of treating like cases alike—and since it is the judges themselves who have announced that precedents are binding, then by this same logic, these same judges also have the authority to disregard the doctrine that they themselves have created. Of course, one could reply that our argument has no practical import in the real world, since so few judges would ever openly disregard or undo the doctrine of stare decisis

But what about the hard cases?

Image Credit: Missthermo, via Pinterest

This post is based on our previous work: F. E. Guerra-Pujol, “Is stare decisis a sand castle?,” Arizona State Law Journal (Oct. 1, 2012).

Posted in Law, Logical Fallacies, Paradoxes | 3 Comments