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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Grade the Professor
We are teaching “Intro to Business Law” at UCF this semester, and now that we are half-way through the semester, we would like some feedback from our students. (At last count, 1009 students are enrolled in Introduction to Business Law or BUL 3130.) You have … Continue reading
Are we all Bayesians now?
F. D. Flam’s essay “The Odds, Continually Updated” revisits the famous Monty Hall Problem and appears in this week’s Science Times. (The science section of the N.Y. Times, which appears every Tuesday, offers a fascinating glimpse into the wonderful world of … Continue reading
Are “nudges” ethical?
Moral philosopher Jeremy Waldron offers this powerful critique of “soft paternalism” or the use of state-sponsored “nudges” to change behavior (emphasis ours): … it may help to think about a slightly different sort of nudge—an informational nudge, where we manipulate the information given … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Law, Questions Rarely Asked
Tagged Jeremy Waldron, Risk, Soft Paternalism
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Things that cost more than space exploration
Pop Quiz: What do presidential libraries, advertisements for prescription drugs, and pennies (yes, pennies!) have in common? They are all things that cost more than space exploration! (Hat tip: Tyler Cowen.)
“Visualizing Probabilistic Proof”
That is the title of our latest paper on the blue bus problem, a favorite law-school hypothetical of torts and evidence professors. (We wrote up a first draft of our paper in Tarpon Springs, Florida during the summer of 2013 and made some stylistic … Continue reading
What ESPN doesn’t want you to hear
Addendum: By the way, while we’re on the subject of ESPN’s three-week suspension of Bill Simmons, check out this original analysis of the economics of employee suspensions here. (Tyler Cowen offers two possible economic explanations of employee suspensions.) This part of … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Language
Tagged Audio, Bill Simmons, SoundCloud
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“The moral tragedy of Scottish independence”
That is the melodramatic title of this short essay by Emile Simpson, an English scholar and former British infantry officer. (Thanks to Tyler Cowen for the pointer.) Although we are not certain when a tragedy becomes a “moral tragedy,” Simpson’s paper is worth reading because he … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Deception, Politics, Rules, Voting
Tagged Scottish independence referendum
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High-Five Social Experiment
Have you ever seen a crazy-looking bearded man high-five random strangers? Neither have we, until now … Meir Kalmanson is a genius.
Vampiric Medical Technology
Originally posted on Economics of the Undead:
Guest Post by Enrique Guerra-Pujol In Chapter 12 (“Buy or Bite?”) of The Economics of the Undead, I observed how most members of the vampire race resort to coercion, compulsion, and confiscation to…
Who is an American?
Anyone who lives in the Americas, including but not limited to citizens of the United States. People in the U.S., however, like this culturally-insensitive law professor, often use the term “American” to refer exclusively to themselves. But this is wrong and blatantly offensive … Continue reading
prior probability 