Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning

Trump against the world

Posted on November 2, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

In our previous post, we mentioned that a small number of scholars (about 150 intellectuals at last count) have openly declared their support for Donald Trump. According to their public statement, the 150 are voting for Trump for the following reasons: … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Economics, Law, Politics | 2 Comments

Presidential Meta-Poll (updated)

Posted on October 28, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

1. Will the results of this year’s presidential election confirm or disprove the median voter theorem? 2. Further questions: (a) How do we determine who the “median voter” is in the real world, and along which policy dimension do we … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Mathematics, Politics | 6 Comments

10 x 10 = 100 (time scarcity edition)

Posted on October 25, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Tim Urban, who blogs at waitbutwhy.com, wrote up this short but thought-provoking blog post on time scarcity. In brief, he estimates that most people sleep about seven or eight hours a night, which leaves 16 to 17 awake hours each … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Time | 2 Comments

Why doesn’t Starbucks recycle?

Posted on October 22, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Shout out to Elizabeth Drivas, a student in my undergraduate business law class at the University of Central Florida, who posed this provocative question to me during office hours on 21 October. In other words, when a successful firm like Starbucks touts its commitment to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Questions Rarely Asked | 4 Comments

Tail wags dog (airport noise edition)

Posted on October 19, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Game Theory, Law, Politics, Property Rights, Questions Rarely Asked | 3 Comments

The football coach who never punts …

Posted on October 15, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Hat tip: Tyler Cowen, via Marginal Revolution. Addendum (18 Oct 2016): R.J. Lipton and K.W. Regan, who blog at Godel’s Lost Letter and P=NP, discuss the following theorem: Theorem 1 (Fundamental Theorem of Football?) The optimal strategy is initially always to go … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability, Questions Rarely Asked, Sports | 4 Comments

We owe Tom Brady an apology …

Posted on October 10, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When news of #DeflateGate broke after the AFC Championship Game in January 2015, we were among the first bloggers to condemn quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for breaking NFL rules. After all, the Patriots have cheated before, … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Current Affairs, Games, Law, Sports | Leave a comment

Game Theory 101 (Scalia’s replacement edition)

Posted on October 2, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this excellent essay in the Harvard Business Review in which two academic economists, Avinash Dixit and David McAdams, use game theory to analyze the year-long political impasse over the U.S. Supreme Court. Game theory is a branch of … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Game Theory, Law, Politics | 1 Comment

Visualization of the most and least talkative Simpsons characters

Posted on September 30, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Mathematics | 6 Comments

Capitalist Cuba?

Posted on September 29, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

File this entry under Paradoxes of Cuban Socialism. Why isn’t access to the Internet free in Socialist Cuba? Via the Associated Press (emphasis by us): HAVANA (Sep. 21) — The Cuban government says it will make five miles of Havana’s … Continue reading →