prior probability

“On Constitutional Disobedience”

Posted on February 8, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

That is the title of this thought-provoking book by Louis Michael Seidman, a professor of constitutional law at Georgetown University. In summary, Professor Seidman’s thesis is that the Constitution of 1787 is not binding on us. While a strong case can certainly be made that Supreme Court interpretations of the Constitution are not binding on the other branches of the national government, you can go ahead and file Seidman’s work under “stupid sh*t law professors say.” In politics, as in any other human activity, we must have rules–as well as an entity who is willing and able to enforce the rules. Without a set of rules, how can we play?

Posted in Cooperation, Law, Philosophy, Politics, Questions Rarely Asked | Tagged Constitution, Louis Michael Seidman, Sophistry | Leave a comment

Monday morning quarterbacks and the limits of game theory

Posted on February 7, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Our colleague Justin Wolfers has written an excellent essay defending the indefensible–Coach Carroll’s controversial play call on 2nd down with 26 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter of Super Bowl XLIX, the disastrous (in hindsight) play call that led to his team’s gut-wrenching defeat in the final seconds of the championship game. In particular, Professor Wolfers takes a well-known solution concept from game theory–the idea of a “mixed strategy“–and applies it to the game of football. Briefly, the idea is that a team on offense should randomly choose between rushing the football and passing the football in order to maximize its probability of scoring … Continue reading →

Posted in Game Theory, Probability, Sports | Tagged Football, Justin Wolfers | Leave a comment

Distribution of birthdays

Posted on February 6, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

In other words, some birthdays are more probable than others!

Posted in Culture, Probability | Tagged Birthdays | Leave a comment

Reddit mystery

Posted on February 5, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

We love this picture. But who is she?

No one really knows.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Alternate solar systems

Posted on February 4, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Is this art or science? Check out this cool Russian Space Agency video of what the sky would look like if the Sun were replaced by some other stars. It starts off with the binary star system of Alpha Centuri and ends with Polaris, which has a radius 46 times that of the Sun. Via kottke.

Posted in Art, Questions Rarely Asked, Science | Leave a comment

Sideways (map of the world edition)

Posted on February 3, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Via reddit, this Chinese map depicts the best sea routes between China and the ports of New York City and Rotterdam.

Posted in Culture, Maps | Tagged Trade | Leave a comment

Prediction theory of law (#Celebgate edition)

Posted on February 2, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Is Apple liable in tort for last fall’s hack of celebrity iCloud accounts? What about Google? Check out this in-depth essay by Issie Lapowsky, published in Wired Magazine last September, addressing some of these questions. According to one source cited in Lapowsky’s report — David Vladeck, the former director of the U.S. Bureau of Consumer Protection and a professor of law at Georgetown University — Apple will likely be sued after hackers stole nude photos that many Hollywood celebrities had stored on the company’s iCloud service. Although such suits have had little success in the past, “he and other legal and cybersecurity experts also say that a lawsuit over the high-profile hack may be just the thing to push Apple and other online companies to more aggressively protect the people using their services.” This particular prediction came true, but what probability of success would you assign to this lawsuit?

Posted in Law, Questions Rarely Asked, Web/Tech | Tagged BUL 3130, Celebgate, Negligence, Prediction Theory of Law, Privacy | Leave a comment

Most Valuable Cheater?

Posted on February 2, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

According to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport, “Brady told someone close to him that he works on the footballs all week, then has no idea what happens to them on gameday.” Yeah right … We are still awaiting the results of the NFL’s investigation into “Deflate Gate.” In the meantime, congrats to all you suspected cheaters out there! Your team won the big game.

Posted in Cheating, Current Affairs, Sports | Tagged #12, Most Valuable Cheater, Tom Brady | 1 Comment

A constitutional contradiction?

Posted on February 2, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this disturbing essay by Daniel Lazare comparing people’s reverence for the U.S. Constitution to our reverence for holy texts. He also identifies a fundamental contradiction in our Constitution to boot:

Sealed in moisture-controlled, bullet-proof glass containers that are on display in a special rotunda at the National Archives Museum in Washington DC by day and lowered into a multi-ton bomb-proof vault by night, the Constitution is to the US what the Bible was to medieval Europe or the Qur’an to today’s Islamic State, albeit with certain differences … On one hand, the Preamble seems to establish ‘we the people’ as the all-powerful makers and breakers of constitutions. On the other, the rest of the document outlines a system that gives them almost no power at all. So which is it?

So, what is the optimal level of constitutional change? Isn’t there a trade-off between stability and flexibility, between the risk of political fossilization and the risk of revolutionary turmoil?