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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Forget 9/11?
Originally posted on prior probability:
This week marks the 12th anniversary of the terrible events that took place on the morning of 11 Sept. 2001 in the United States … and the 40th anniversary of the terrible events of 11…
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs
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Jadeveon Clowney and the future of forecasting
Sportswriter David Levin identified three reasons why defensive end Jadeveon Clowney might turn out to be a “bust” or bad draft pick for the Houston Texans. Although it remains to be seen at this early stage how Clowney’s pro-football career will … Continue reading
Scottish non-independence prediction markets
Scotland about 50% support for independence, but markets still only about 25% that it actually passes in 2 weeks: http://t.co/rm2GgyPurz — David Rothschild 🌻 (@DavMicRot) September 7, 2014 The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics, Voting
Tagged Prediction Markets
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Trolley problems
Here is the 34-word abstract of our latest paper, a work-in-progress with the title “Trolley Problems“: This paper proposes a novel and probabilistic solution to the famous “trolley problem” in moral philosophy. In short, we would solve the trolley problem … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Philosophy
Tagged moral philosophy, Trolley Problem
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Supreme Court Selection Bias?
Where do Supreme Court justices get their facts from? Oftentimes, they get their “facts” from amicus curiae legal briefs that are filed by “friends of the court,” i.e. private parties with axes to grind. Now, check out this fascinating report by Adam … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Law, Logical Fallacies
Tagged Selection Bias, Supreme Court
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“When should you show up to a party?”
That is the key question posed in this fun essay by Walt Hickey, who now writes for FiveThirtyEight and who graduated from the College of William and Mary with a degree in applied mathematics. Here is an excerpt from Mr Hickey’s analysis: Nobody wants … Continue reading
Self-defense?
How many civilians, on average, do police forces in the United States kill each year? Legal scholar Richard Epstein, however, asks a different lethal-force question: Police officer deaths in the line of duty, year to date for 2014, were 67 of which … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Law, Uncategorized
Tagged Police Killings, Richard Epstein
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Who won the Carr-Benkler wager?
The Carr-Benkler wager was a bet made way back in 2006 between Nicholas Carr, an internet critic and 2011 Pulitzer Prize finalist who coined the disparaging (but accurate) term “digital sharecropping” to describe Facebook’s exploitative business model, and Yochai Benkler, an internet champion and … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Truth, Web/Tech
Tagged Carr-Benkler Wager, Nicholas Carr, Yochai Benkler
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Will LeBron win another NBA championship?
Put another way, if you had to wager your money on this question, would you bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers, or would you bet the field? (Yeah, that’s what we thought.) By the way, while we’re on the subject of #23, what’s … Continue reading
Women against feminism …
Check out this funny and controversial Women Against Feminism tumblr where women of all ages and races post selfies explaining why they reject feminism. Is this a sign of progress, or a step backwards? What would Rosie say?
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics
Tagged Anti-feminism, Feminism
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prior probability 