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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Zuckerberg for President?
Happy MLK Day! Check out this well-reasoned conjecture by Nick Bilton explaining the origins and logic of Facebook inventor and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s worldly ambitions. Here is just one excerpt from Mr Bilton’s intriguing essay: “Facebook would not be Zuckerberg’s … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Politics
4 Comments
Actuarial table of Trump’s justices
Last year, Donald Trump released a shortlist of conservative jurists he said he would consider as possible U.S. Supreme Court replacements for the late great Justice Antonin Scalia. Recently, our friend, colleague, and fellow blogger Josh Blackman (of seven-screen fame) compiled the somewhat morbid table below calculating the … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Law, Politics, Probability
3 Comments
Is the tree of life more like a web?
The great Charles Darwin visualized a tree of life (pictured below) consisting of separate species springing from a distant ancestor, but what if many of these “separate species” still share significant amounts of the same genetic material? Check out, for … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Uncategorized
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In memory of Thomas Schelling, the errant economist
Update (1/22/17): check out this touching tribute to Schelling by Glenn Loury. (Hat tip: Garrett Jones, via Twitter.) We have been trying to stay away from the Internet during our “Christmas sabbatical” to spend more time with our family, attend to … Continue reading
Posted in Academia, Bayesian Reasoning, Cooperation, Economics, Game Theory
2 Comments
Negative tipping?
What’s up, doc? As you may be aware of, a growing number of establishments are beginning to flat out ban the practice of tipping. But what if, instead of abolishing tipping, patrons had the option ex ante of giving a “negative tip.” In … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Game Theory
2 Comments
If “did not vote” were a candidate, it would have won the 2016 election
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs
3 Comments
Legal prophecies
In previous papers, we have used Bayesian methods to predict litigation outcomes (“A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game“), and we have also modeled litigation as a game of poker (“The Poker-Litigation Game“). In our latest work (“The Colonel Blotto Litigation Game“), we model litigation … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Game Theory, Law
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Trump’s toupee
Gawker’s Ashley Feinberg did some digging and was able to trace the origins of Donald’s Trump’s meticulous hairdo. It’s a toupee! According to Ms Feinberg, Trump’s toupee is based on “a little-known, patented hair restoration treatment [pictured below] called a … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Questions Rarely Asked, Science, Truth
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prior probability 