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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
Forget 9/11?
Originally posted on prior probability:
This week marks the 12th anniversary of the terrible events that took place on the morning of 11 Sept. 2001 in the United States … and the 40th anniversary of the terrible events of 11…
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs
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The Airplane Seat Dilemma
Times writer Josh Barro and cultural economist Tyler Cowen have recently used the so-called Coase Theorem to analyze the economics of cheap airplane seats — the ones with little leg room, so that reclining your seat imposes a non-trivial cost on the person behind you. … Continue reading
Posted in Current Affairs, Game Theory
Tagged Airplane Seats, Coase Theorem, Social Contract
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In defense of Ray Rice’s legal rights
We offer the following three-part commentary in response to the Ray Rice witch-hunt: 1. Self-righteous TV news anchors and the news media generally have now milked the unfortunate Ray Rice affair for all it’s worth by airing the infamous elevator surveillance video countless times. … Continue reading
Jadeveon Clowney and the future of forecasting
Sportswriter David Levin identified three reasons why defensive end Jadeveon Clowney might turn out to be a “bust” or bad draft pick for the Houston Texans. Although it remains to be seen at this early stage how Clowney’s pro-football career will … Continue reading
Scottish non-independence prediction markets
Scotland about 50% support for independence, but markets still only about 25% that it actually passes in 2 weeks: http://t.co/rm2GgyPurz — David Rothschild 🌻 (@DavMicRot) September 7, 2014 The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics, Voting
Tagged Prediction Markets
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Does Amazon make a profit?
According to this economic analysis of Amazon’s business model by Benedict Evans, the answer is “not yet” … because Jeff Bezos has adopted a “closed-loop” strategy of re-investing all of Amazon’s revenues back into his company in order “to capture a larger and … Continue reading
Trolley problems
Here is the 34-word abstract of our latest paper, a work-in-progress with the title “Trolley Problems“: This paper proposes a novel and probabilistic solution to the famous “trolley problem” in moral philosophy. In short, we would solve the trolley problem … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Philosophy
Tagged moral philosophy, Trolley Problem
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3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com
Originally posted on Error Statistics Philosophy:
Where did you hear this? “Join me, if you will, for a little deep-water drilling, as I cast about on my isle of Elba.” Remember this and this? And this philosophical treatise on “moving…
Posted in Uncategorized
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Is Apple’s iCloud a defective product?
As a threshold matter, we would first have to determine whether Apple’s iCloud digital storage system is a “product” or a “service.” For the record, the answer to this key question is not obvious to us. Neither is it obvious to us whether this threshold issue poses a matter of … Continue reading
Supreme Court Selection Bias?
Where do Supreme Court justices get their facts from? Oftentimes, they get their “facts” from amicus curiae legal briefs that are filed by “friends of the court,” i.e. private parties with axes to grind. Now, check out this fascinating report by Adam … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Law, Logical Fallacies
Tagged Selection Bias, Supreme Court
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prior probability 